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Invited seminars and lectures

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(For listing pre 2000 see here)

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  • Invited seminar: Bayesian networks: what are they and why they work when ‘big data’ methods fail, The James Hutton Institute Seminar, Aberdeen University, 27 September 2023

  • Invited seminar: Bayesian networks for healthcare data: what are they and why they work when ‘big data’ methods fail, NHS Health and Care Analytics Conference, 5 July 2023. This lecture was cancelled, see: https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/an-update-on-my-nhs-conference-cancellation

  • Invited Presentation and panel session: "Were the Covid lockdowns a precursor for climate lockdowns", World Council For Health Better Way Conference (panel Session 5 "from Climate Change to Climate Nurture"), Bath 3 June 2023

  • Testimony to the Corona Investigative Committee (Germany): "How flawed data shaped the covid crisis and its response to it", 12 May 2023. Full testimony (presented 12 May 2023) is here (my testimony starts at 2:29:28): https://odysee.com/@Corona-Ausschuss:3/s155de:c

  • Invited Lecture: "Censorship in the Covid era", Doctors For Covid Ethics Town Hall Meeting, 11 May 2023

  • Invited Lecture: "Did flawed data shape the covid crisis and response to it?"  Keep Talking at The Tea House Theatre, Vauxhall, 4 May 2023. Video of lecture (poor sound quality)

  • Invited Lecture: "Review of key flawed Covid definitions, data and modelling", PANDA Open Science Meeting, 6 Dec 2022

  • Invited Lecture: "How the entire narrative around Covid-19 has been driven by flawed data" (15 minutes), Congresso Internacional, Sobre Gestão de Pandemias/Saúde, Portual 28 October 2022

  • Invited keynote: "Improving critical decision-making with Bayesian networks,  Meeting in Memory of Peter Vamos, Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics, Reáltanoda utca 13-15, Budapest, Hungary, 24 Sept 2022

  • Invited lecture: "How flawed statistics have manipulated the Covid narrative", Doctors For Patients UK, 14 September 2022

  • Invited Panelist 'Working at the Interface' 15th Bayesian Methods and Applications Workshop 2022, Uncertainty in AI Conference, 15 August 2022

  • Invited Public Lecture "Risk Assessment with Bayesian Causal Networks: Achievements and Challenges", Aalto University School of Science, Finland 24 May 2022.

  • Invited Webinar: "Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment", The Society of Information Risk Analysts, USA, 20 May 2022

  • Invited Lecture: "How misleading data has driven false narratives about Covid-19", General Asembly of PECC (The Israeli Public Emergency Council For The Covid19 Crisis), 17 Feb 2022

  • Invited Lecture: "Covid-19: How flawed data has driven the narrative", PANDA (Pandemics - Data & Analytics) Open Science Meeting, 4 Jan 2022.

  • Invited Lecture; "The latest data on vaccine efficacy and safety from the UK", World Council for Health, General Assembly, 13th December 2021. Streamed live.

  • Invited Seminar: "Statistical Issues with Probabilistic Genotyping", US National Forensic College, New York, 12 August 2021

  • Invited Lecture: "Why the statistics driving COVID-19 are flawed", Question Everything Summit, Cavendish Conference Centre, London 17 July 2021

  • Opening presentation: "PAMBAYESIAN: PAtient Managed decision-support using Bayesian networks", Public Seminar, 7 June 2021

  • Invited Seminar: "Bayesianism: Objections and Rebuttals", Philosophical Foundations of Evidence Law Seminar Series, organized by the NORTH SEA GROUP, 11 May 2021

  • Invited seminar, School of Medicine and Dentistry, Covid Research Seminar Series, Queen Mary: "What is the true proportion of people with Covid-19 who do not get symptoms?", 23 April 2021

  • Invited talk: "On the limitations of probabilistic claims about the probative value of mixed DNA profile evidence", 6th Annual Questioning Forensics Conference, The Legal Aid Society, New York, USA, 29 Jan 2021

  • Invited Lecture:  "Why Big Data and AI machine learning will never work for critical problems of risk assessment – causal reasoning and  knowledge to the rescue", UK National Environment Research Council (NERC) initiative on Constructing a Digital Environment Webinar Series, 17 Dec 2020

  • Invited seminar: "Systems Thinking, Causal Modelling and ‘smart data’", UK Government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Office for Product Satefy Standards (OPSS), 17 Sept 2020. Slides (pdf)

  • Invited seminar: "A causal approach to COVID-19 disease and symptom tracking", School of Medicine and Dentistry (SMD) COVID Research Seminar Series, 7 August 2020

  • Invited panelist: "People and Pandemics – A Better World?", Queen Mary Public Lecture Series, 22 July 2020, Full video:  https://www.qmul.ac.uk/events/digital-library/items/people-and-pandemics--a-better-world.html

  • Invited Pint of Science Presentation: “Risk: why everything you read or hear about it is probably wrong”, 11th May 2020 at the Crown Tavern, London  POSTPONED

  • Invited Lecture: "Bayesian networks: combining data and knowledge", IADS Spring School on Data Science and Quantum Computing, Cumberland Lodge, Windsor, UK, 30 March 2020

  • Invited Seminar: "Bayesian Risk Modelling in Health Research", Multivariate training event, Wolfson Institute, London 17 Jan 2020. Feedback from talk. 

  • Respondent to seminar devoted to discussion of our paper "The Opportunity Prior: A Simple and Practical Solution to the Prior Probability Problem for Legal Cases", Philosophy of Science and Epistemology (LoPSE) Seminar Series, at the University of Gdansk, Poland, 13 Dec 2019

  • Invited Lecture "Resolving the so-called probabilistic paradoxes in legal reasoning with Bayesian networks",   International Workshop on BAYES AND INFERENCE TO THE BEST EXPLANATION IN CRIMINAL LAW, Groningen 8 Nov 2019.

  • Invited Talk: "Risk assessment in the era of big data",  Science and Engineering Faculty Industry Research Engagement Day, Queen Mary University of London, 6 Nov 2019

  • Invited lecture to MSc students and Degree apprentices, Queen Mary: “Bayes and the Law: How much can we trust DNA evidence?”, 31 Oct 2019

  • Invited Seminar: "Why machine learning from big data fails – and what to do about it", Institure for Applied Data Science workshop on Machine Learning fore understanding risk in the real world, London, 3 October 2019. Powerpoint presentation (PPTS)

  • Invited Seminar; "Building risk models for medical applications", Turing Study Group on Data Science for Early Detection in Medicine, Wolfson Institute, Barts and the Royal London, 16 April 2019

  • Invited Presentation: "Smart data and causal models for useful AI in health applications", Big Data for Medical Application Workshop, Barts and the Royal London Hospital, 27 March  2019

  • Invited Presentation: "Improved Medical Decision-making using Bayesian networks with ‘smart data’", Babylon Health, London, 28 Feb 2019

  • Workshop presentation: "PAMBAYESIAN: PAtient Managed decision-support using Bayesian networks", Barts Pathology Museum, 6 Feb 2019

  • Invited Seminar:  "The need for smart data and causal models to achieve useful AI in health applications", Health Data Research UK, Imperial College London, 21 Jan 2019

  • Invited Seminar: "Smart data for AI", Brunel University, 16 Jan 2019

  • Invited Seminar: "AI for healthcare relies on smart data rather than big data",  Royal London Hospital,  27 Nov 2018

  • Invited Seminar: "Smart data not big data: Improving critical decision-making with Bayesian networks", European Research Council, Brussells, Belgium, 14 September 2018

  • Invited Talk "On the Role of Statistics in Miscarriages of Justice".  Meeting of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Miscarriages of Justice. House of Commons, London 25 June 2018. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.22791.70567

  • Invited Lecture. "Fallacies of Probability and Risk", Bournemouth Skeptics in the Pub,  13 June 2018

  • Invited short presentation:EPSRC QMUL AI / Industry Event,  "Causal Models versus Machine Learnt Models",  16 May 2018. Video (5 minutes).

  • Invited keynote "Is there a Role for Bayes in the Law?",  Colloquium on Evidence Theory, Faculty of Law, Lund University, 26 April 2018

  • Invited lecture "Bayesian Networks and the Law", University College London, MSc Course Crime and Forensic Science, 7 March 2018

  • Invited Conference Presentation, "The benefits and pitfalls of Bayes in forensic analysis", 10th International Conference of the ERCM WG on  Computational and Methodological Statistics (CM Statistics 2017), Senate House, University of London 18 Dec 2017

  • Invited lecture: "Probability and Risk", Portsmouth Skeptics Society, The Rifle Gallery in Fratton, Portsmouth, 12 October 2017. Powerpoint presentation (pps) slides (16Mb)

  • Acepted paper with Jacob de Zoete, "Modeling complex legal cases as a Bayesian network (BN) using idioms and sensitivity analysis
    with the Collins case as a complete example",  ICFIS2017 (10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), Mineapolis, USA,  6 Sept 2017.  Slide show

  • Acepted paper with Jacob de Zoete, "Automatic Generation of Bayesian networks in Forensic Science",  ICFIS2017 (10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), Mineapolis, USA,  6 Sept 2017. Slide show

  • Accepted paper: "Combining judgments with messy data to build Bayesian Network models for improved intelligence analysis and decision support", SPUDM26 (The 26th Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decicion Making Conference), The Technion, Haifa, Israel, 22 August 2017.  Slides

  • Invited Lecture to Judges and Staff of the International Criminal Court, "The Power and Pitfalls of Probabilistic Evidence", International Criminal Court of The Hague, The Hague, Netherlands 4 July 2017. Slide show

  • Invited speech "Fallacies of probability and risk", GCSE Mathematics in Action 2017, Logan Hall, London, 15 March 2017. 

  • Invited seminar: "Improving Legal Reasoning With Bayesian Networks", University College London, MSc Course Crime and Forensic Science, 8 March 2017 

  • Invited Talk: "Innocent until proven guilty: a fair approach to agreed prior probabilities",  JURIX 2016, 15 December 2016, Nice, France.

  • Invited Talk: "Recommendations and Guidelines for using Probability and Statistics in the Law",  Turing Gateway to Mathematics  - Dissemination Workshop on Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science, 1 Dec 2016, Cambridge

  • Opening talk: "Beyond a reasonable doubt: a Bayesian perspective", Workshop "Beyond a Reasonable Doubt : Scenarios and Bayesian Networks for Analyzing Forensic Evidence", Groningen, The Netherlands, 27 October 2016

  • Keynote talk: “Bayesian networks: challenges and opportunities in the law”, Workshop on Bayesian Networks and Argumentation in Evidence, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge. 27 September 2016, Video: https://www.newton.ac.uk/seminar/20160927101511001

  • Keynote talk: "The Challenges of  Bayes in the Law", Workshop on "The nature of questions arising in court that can be addressed by probability and statistical methods", 30 August-2 September 2016, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge. Video: https://www.newton.ac.uk/seminar/20160902113012001

  • Seminar: "Bayesian Networks and the Law", Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge 24 August 2016

  • Invited Talk: "Bayes Theorem: What's the big deal", Brighton Skeptics in the Cafe, Brighton, 22 August 2016. Slide show

  • Invited Talk: "On the benefits and pitfalls of using the likelihood ratio to help understand the impact of forensic evidence", The Forensic Institute FORREST 2016,  Glasgow  5 July 2016. Slide Show

  • Invited Talk: "Fallacies of Probability and Risk", Queen Mary University of London Undergraduate Recruitment Open Day, 24 June 2016

  • Invited Talk: "The prosecutor's fallacy and other errors of legal reasoning",  Investigation and Prosecution of Homicide Conference, Hilton Green Park Hotel, London 24 March 2016

  • Invited keynote: "Impediments and Opportunities to using Statistics and Probability in Legal Arguments",  Turing Gateway to Mathematics and Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences Seminar on Probability and Statistics - Perspectives from the Legal Profession, The City Law School,  London, 9 Feb 2016. Slides here.

  • Invited speech "Fallacies of probability and risk", A-level Mathematics in Action 2015, University of Warwick, 8 December 2015. Slides here.

  • Invited Seminar: "Bayesian Networks: Smart Data not Big Data", Queen Mary University of London, 16 October 2015

  • Keynote speech, Winchester Science Festival, 26 July 2015, "Probability and Risk" 

  • Accepted workshop paper. Yet, B., Constantinour A., Fenton N. E., Neil M., Leudeling E., Shepherd, K.,  "Project Cost, Benefit and Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks",  Bayesian Applications Workshop, 31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015), Amsterdam, 16 July 2015.

  • Accepted presentation and paper. Zhou, Y., Fenton, N. E., Hospedales, T, & Neil, M. (2015). "Probabilistic Graphical Models Parameter Learning with Transferred Prior and Constraints" , 31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015) , Amsterdam, 13-15 July 2015

  • Invited keynote speech "Making Decisions with Less Data", Procter & Gamble Conference on Breaking the Barriers to Fast Cycle Consumer Learning. Brusels, 26 June 2015 

  • Invited Address "Beyond Likelihood Ratios",15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law  (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 12, 2015 

  • Accepted presentation and paper. Chockler, H., Fenton N.E., Koeppens J., Lagnado, D. (2015), "Causal Analysis for Attributing Responsibility in Legal Cases",  15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law  (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015

  • Invited Lecture "Legal Reasoning using Bayesian Networks", University College London, 25 March 2015

  • Invited Lecture: "Risk Assessment in Finance using Bayesian Networks", Government Actuary's Department, London 18 November 2014. Powerpoint slides here.

  • Accepted presentation: "Limitations and opportunities of the likelihood ratio approach for evidence evaluation", ICFIS (9th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), 19-22 August 2014, Leiden. Powerpoint slides here. Abstract here.

  • Invited Lecture: "Improved Medical Risk Assessment",  Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, 20 May 2014

  • Plenary Address: "Improving Probability and Risk Assessment in the Law", Winchester Conference on Trust, Risk, Information and the Law, University of Winchester , 29 April 2014. Slides here.

  • Invited Lecture "New developments in Bayesian network software", Fifth Annual Conference of the Australasian Bayesian Network Modelling Society (ABNMS2013), Hobart, Tasmania, 28 Nov 2013. Slides here.

  • Invited Lecture "Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment",  14 November 2013, Society of Information Risk Analysts (USA)  by online webinar. Slides here.

  • Invited Lecture "Probability and the Law", Exeter University, 10 October 2013 (also part of the Exeter Initiative for Statistics and its Applications and the Royal Statistical Society). A  recording (with slides) of the lecture is here.

  • Invited Lecture "Legal Reasoning using Bayesian Networks", University College London, 20 March 2013, MSc in Cognitive and Decision Sciences

  • Invited Keynote "Software Quality: Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", IBM Quality Software Engineering Symposium, IBM Hursley, 27 Sept 2012

  • Invited Keynote  "Improving Legal Reasoning with Bayesian Networks", The Sixth European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM2012), 19-21 Sept 2012, Granada, Spain

  • Invited Seminar "Bayes and the Law", University College London Centre for the Forensic Sciences, 21 March 2012

  • Invited presentation "Statistics and Bayesian reasoning ",  Crown Prosecution Service, Forensic Science Awareness Training, 9 March 2012

  • Invited presentation, "Potential for Bayesian reasoning in Digital Forensics", Digital Forensics Specialist Group , Home Office, 1 Feb 2012 

  • Invited presentation, " Improving Medical and Legal Decision-making with Bayes",  ImpactQM Advisory Board, Queen Mary University of London,  24 Nov 2011

  • Invited presentation, "Bayes and the Law", Royal Statistical Society  London (Working Group on Statistics and the Law), 28 September 2011

  • Invited Presentation, "Improving the presention of legal evidence using Bayesian Networks", International Centre for Criminological Comparative Research (ICCCR) Annual Conference, 7-8 July 2011, The Open University.

  • Invited Seminar, "Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", LDJM (London Judgement and Decision Making Society),  University College London, 28 April 2010

  • Invited Seminar, "Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", Sheffield University, 18 March 2010

  • Invited lecture: "Improving Medical Decision Making with Bayes", Discipline Bridging Initiative, Queen Mary, University of London, 18 November, 2009.

  • Invited Presentation "The Role and Future of Search Based Software Engineering", 1st International Symposium on Search Based Software Engineering. Windsor, UK, 13 May 2009

  • Invited seminar: "Probabilistic Risk Assessment", University of Westminster , Harrow Campus, 18 March 2009

  • Invited Webinar "10 Fallacies about Software Project Metrics", CAI and the IT Metrics & Productivity Institute 2008 Software Best Practices Webinar Series, November 13th, 2008

  • Invited keynote: "Bayesian Networks: Overview and Challenges", The Lighthill Risk Network Bayesian Networks Seminar, Lloyds, London, 22 October 2008

  • Invited Keynote: "Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", 3rd Biennial Beta Conference, Eindhoven University of Technology, 25 Sept 2008

  • Accepted Paper: "Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks",  Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics. 2008: Lausanne, Switzerland, 21-23 August 2008.

  • Invited Keynote: "The prosecution fallacy and other probabilistic fallacies occuring in trials", Society of Expert Witnesses Conference, Swindon, 16 May 2008

  • Invited seminar: "Bayes on Trial", City University Business School, Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance, 6 Feb 2008

  • Invited seminar: "Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Making", Birkbeck College University of London, 27 November 2007 

  • Invited Webinar "Using Metrics to Manage Software Risk", CAI and the IT Metrics & Productivity Institute  2007 Software Best Practices Webinar Series, 3 Oct 2007, http://www.itmpi.org/webinars/

  • Invited presentation "Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability", Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR 07), Glasgow 1-4 July 2007

  • Accepted conference presentation (with Marquez and Neil) "A new Bayesian Network approach to Reliability modelling", Mathematical Methods in Reliability", Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR 07), Glasgow 1-4 July 2007

  • Invited Keynote Presentation "New directions for software metrics" ICSE PROMISE Workshop, Minneapolis, 20 May, 2007

  • Accepted conference presentation "Project Data Incorporating Qualitative Factors for Improved Software Defect Prediction", ICSE PROMISE 2007, 20 May 2007

  • Invited video address "The Prosecutor's Fallacy", the Annual Conference of the Society for Expert Witnesses, Studley Castle, Warwickshire, 6-7 October 2006  and here is the film about legal reasoning in which my (heavily edited) interview is contained (this is a Quick Time file of about 6Mb and my interview is in the middle)

  • Keynote Presentation "New directions for Software Metrics" at The 2006 CIO Symposium on Software Best Practices, London 27 September 2006

  • Interview for IT Metrics and Productivity Institute Sept 2006

  • Invited presentation "Using Bayesian Nets to Predict Software Defects in Arbitrary Software Lifecycles", British Computer Society, Software Process Improvement Network,  BCS, London 23 Feb 2006

  • Invited seminar "Improved prediction of software defects", Brunel University, 8 Dec 2005

  • Invited Keynote presentation "Improved Software Risk Assessment at Philips", International Conference on Software Testing 2005, SQC, 28 Sept 2005, QE2 Conference Centre London

  • Conference presentation (with Martin Neil), “Improved software defect prediction”,  10th European SEPG, London, 14 June 2005

  • Invited presentation "Improved Software risk Assessment", Symbian, London, 5 May 2005

  • Invited Keynote presentation "Software Metrics: Improved Approach to Software Risk Assessment", Philips 9th International Software Process Improvement Workshop", Eindhoven, 12 April 2005

  • Invited Tutorial (with Rajat Mishra of Philips Bangalore) "Bayesian Networks for project
    management and defect prediction", 12th International Philips Software Conference,  Eindhoven, 13 April 2005

  • Invited presentation "Using Bayesian Nets for  Resource Decisions for Software Projects", SCAF (Society for Cost Analysis and Forecasting), Farnborough, 23 Nov 2004

  • Conference presentation: "Making Resource Decisions for Software Projects", 26th International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE 2004), May 2004, Edinburgh, United Kingdom. IEEE Computer Society 2004

  • Invited Full-day Tutorial: "Software Metrics for Quantified Risk Management",  12 Annual Safety Critical Systems Symposium, Forest of Arden, Birmingham, 17th-19th February, 2004

  • Invited talk "Quantified Risk Management in Complex Software Projects", BAe Systems Ltd, Basildon, 18 Dec 2003

  • Invited talk "Quantified Risk Management in Complex Software Projects", Raytheon Systems Ltd, Harlow, 27 November 2003

  • Invited talk "Bayesian nets for improved risk assessment", Israel Aircraft Industries, Tel Aviv, 29 October 2003

  • Invited talk "Measuring Uncertainty Using Bayesian Networks", South Bank University, 2 December 2002

  • Invited talk "New Directions for Software Metrics", Surrey University, 31 October 2002

  • Invited talk "Incorporating Expert Judgement in Operational Risk Quantification", Safety Critical Systems Conference, Brighton 15 October 2002

  • Invited talk "Measuring Uncertainty Using Bayesian Networks", Unilever Data Sciences Research Conference, Colworth, 1 October 2002

  • Keynote talk "Bayesian Nets and Risk Assessment", SIMP Symposium, City University, London 18 July 2002

  • Invited talk "Improving software quality: metrics, standards, and risk assessment", National Air Traffic Services, Head Office, London 9 November 2001

  • Invited talk: "Fallacies in Legal Reasoning", QMW Public Policy Advisory Board, Overseas League, St James, 18 June 2001

  • Invited talk: "Risk and Decision Making", DTI/EPSRC Software Technology Outreach Seminar on Frameworks for Risk Reduction in Complex Design and Safety Projects, 24 April 2001

  • Keynote Talk "Software Metrics: Uncertainty and Causal Modelling", 6th Philips Software Conference, Eindhoven, Feb 8, 2001.

  • Inaugural Lecture: "Uncertainty in Critical Systems", Queen Mary (University of London) 2 November 2000

  • Invited talk (with Martin Neil)  'Software Metrics Roadmap', ICSE 2000 (International Conference on Software Engineering), Limerick, Ireland, June 2000

  • Invited seminar,  Bournemouth University, May 2000

  • Invited talk, "A new approach to operational risk", Dutch National Bank Seminar on Operational Risk, Amsterdam, 8 February 2000

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