Publications: Causal reasoning and behaviour
Hunte, J L, Osman, M, Fenton, N E., Neil, N and Bechlivanidis C (2024) “The effect of risk communication on consumers’ risk perception, risk tolerance and utility of smart and non-smart home appliances”, Safety Science https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.106197
Stephen H. Dewitt, Nine Adler, Carmen Li, Ekaterina Stoilova, Norman E. Fenton, David A. Lagnado (2023) "Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem", Cognitive Science 47 (7) e13313, https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.13313
Osman, M., McLachlan, S., Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., Löfstedt, R., & Meder, B. (2020). "Learning from behavioural changes that fail". Trends in Cognitive Science, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2020.09.009 Blog post here. Accepted version (pdf).
Cruz, N., Hahn, U., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2020). Explaining away, augmentation, and the noisy assumption of independence. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 502751. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.502751 Accepted version (pdf). Blog post here.
Fenton, N E., Neil, M., & Frazier, S. (2020). The role of collider bias in understanding statistics on racially biased policing. http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.08406
Pilditch, T., Hahn, U., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2020). "Dependencies in evidential reports: The case for informational advantages". Cognition, Vol 204, 104343 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104343 Preprint (accepted version) here. Blog post here
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Dewitt, S., Fenton, N. E., & Liefgreen, AliceLagnado, D. A. (2020). Propensities and second order uncertainty: a modified taxi cab problem. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 503233. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.503233 Accepted version (pdf). Blog post here.
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Fenton, N.E., Hitman, G. A., Neil, M., Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). Causal explanations, error rates, and human judgment biases missing from the COVID-19 narrative and statistics. PsyArXiv Preprints. https://doi.org/10.31234/OSF.IO/P39A4
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Dewitt S.H., Hsu A.S., Lagnado D.A., Desai S.C, Fenton N.E. (2019) "Nested Sets and Natural Frequencies", COGSCI 2019, 41st Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, Montreal, Canada, July 24th – Saturday July 27th, 2019 . Accepted paper (pdf)
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Neil, M., Fenton, N. E., Osman, M., & Lagnado, D. A. (2019). Causality, the critical but often ignored component guiding us through a world of uncertainties in risk assessment. Journal of Risk Research, to 10.1080/13669877.2019.1606454. Pre-publication version (pdf).
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Osman, M., Fenton N.E.., Pilditch, T., Lagnado, D. A., & Neil. M. (2018). "Who do we trust on social policy interventions". Basic and Applied Social Psychology, Vol 40 (5), 249-268 https://doi.org/10.1080/01973533.2018.1469986. Open access version pdf
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Fenton N.E., & Neil, M. (2018). "Lawnmowers versus terrorists: A highly misleading view of risk", Significance 15(1), 12-15. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2018.01104.x/full Full pdf also available here
Fenton N.E., & Neil, M. (2018). "Criminally Incompetent Academic Misinterpretation of Criminal Data - and how the Media Pushed the Fake News", Open Access Report 10.13140/RG.2.2.32052.55680
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Fenton NE, Neil M, Lagnado D, Marsh W, Yet B, Constantinou A (2016), "How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models", Knowledge-Based Systems, Dec 2016 Vol 113, pages 39-50. Gold access full version http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2016.09.012 See also blog posting
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Fenton NE, Neil M, Constantinou A (2015) "Simpson’s Paradox and the implications for medical trials". Working paper. Associared model.
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Chockler, H., Fenton N.E., Koeppens J., Lagnado, D. (2015), "Causal Analysis for Attributing Responsibility in Legal Cases", 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015, pp 33-42, ACM ISBN 978-1-4503-3522-5. Open access version.
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Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., 'The use of Bayes and causal modelling in decision making, uncertainty and risk', UPGRADE, the Journal of CEPIS (Council of European Professional Informatics Societies), 12(5), 10-21, 2011. Published verion here.